What to Expect When You're Expecting Value

How should you incorporate explicit expected value estimates into your prior beliefs? Some help from the Kalman filter

Stop Talking About 'Finding The Next Paul Christiano'

Against 'individual brilliance' discourse in longtermist field-building

How much will the DoD spend on AI research contracts in 2021 H2?

My forecast: 85% likelihood of between $350mn and $650mn

Others Being Wrong Does Not Mean I Am Right

Noticing the difference

Will the US return to the Iran deal by the end of 2021?

My forecast: 5% probability that the US returns

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise in the second half of 2021?

My forecast: 74% probability of between $17 and $21 billion

Efforts to Improve at Forecasting

"Try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again"