What to Expect When You're Expecting Value
How should you incorporate explicit expected value estimates into your prior beliefs? Some help from the Kalman filter
Stop Talking About 'Finding The Next Paul Christiano'
Against 'individual brilliance' discourse in longtermist field-building
How much will the DoD spend on AI research contracts in 2021 H2?
My forecast: 85% likelihood of between $350mn and $650mn
Others Being Wrong Does Not Mean I Am Right
Noticing the difference
Will the US return to the Iran deal by the end of 2021?
My forecast: 5% probability that the US returns
How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise in the second half of 2021?
My forecast: 74% probability of between $17 and $21 billion
Efforts to Improve at Forecasting
"Try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again"